2008 - Ridership and Development Density: Evidence from Washington, D.C.

The introduction and development of the Washington, D.C. MetroRail system over the last 30 years presents an ideal case study for examining the relationship of land-use characteristics and transit ridership. Using data from the Computer-Assisted Mass Appraisal (CAMA) System, socioeconomic factors, and data on average weekday metro rail boardings from the Washington Metropolitan Transit Authority (WMATA), this research paper successfully develops a direct ridership forecasting model for heavy rail transit in the Washington, D.C. region.Building on the results of previous sketch modeling efforts at the national and individual system levels, the results suggest that the type of development density around transit stations is an important factor for predicting transit ridership. In this model, transit-oriented development comprised of high commercial intensities was very significant, while a location within the central business district and population density were less important than other models would suggest.

Images/Documents

LShoup_Ridership_APA.pdf